Japan - Europe Asian Security Dialogue

Japan – Europe Asian Security Dialogue

Belgrade’s Institute of International Politics and Economics hosted group of Japanese academics on February 24^th. Distinguished lecturers (Research Institute for Peace and Security, Japan) were speaking about East Asian security issues viewed from the Japanese perspective. H.E. Masafumi Kuroki, ambassador of Japan in Serbia was also present during the lectures.

Professor Yasuhiro Matsuda spoke about ‘’Rise of China and East Asian Security - A Japanese Perspective’’. He said that East Asia represents strong sovereign states but week regional identity. Mr. Matsuda noticed rise of Chinese nationalism in early 1980ies with its peak in 1989 year. Yasukuni Shrine was also one of causes for Chinese nationalism rise especially after Prime Minister Nakasone visited the shrine in 1985 year. Senkaku islands dispute is also one of the causes for rise of Chinese nationalism from the Japanese perspective, especially after 1968 year and discovery of large oil reserves in the area surrounding islands. Actually Chinese claims were presented in 1971 year regarding the Senkaku’s issue. Today, China and Japan again have decline in their bilateral cooperation, especially after 2008/09. Only few years before Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Japan in friendly atmosphere. The decline was followed by anti-Japanese riots in China and declaring of wider Chinese ADIZ areas. After favorable opinion towards Japanese in 1970ies today there is very low support in Chinese society toward cooperation with Japan. Professor Matsuda expects that rise of China will continue and that role of the United States is more and more important in stabilizing of the region.

Professor Koichiro Tanaka was speaking about ‘’The Middle East Turmoil and Japan’s Oil Security’’. He stressed that the ‘Arab Spring’ prolonged instability in terms of energy supplying. At the same time there were serious structural changes within Japan’s energy policy after Japan decided to close all of its 50 nuclear reactors. In the last year Japan had trade deficit worth 11.5 trillion JPY. This year Japan already created deficit worth 2.8 trillion JPY. At the same time there are huge concerns because account surplus is diminishing quickly and the erosion of the Japanese economy is quite serious, stressed professor Tanaka. High level of oil and LNG prizes caused instability within Japanese economy. At the moment Japan is highly dependent on the Middle East energy supplying with 83% of its oil imports coming from the Middle East. The main oil exporting countries to Japan are Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Qatar and Malaysia are the main LNG suppliers of Japan according to professors Tanaka’s sources. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited almost all of the Gulf’s states with his most recent visit to Bahrain. At the same time many Arab leaders including king of Saudi Arabia visited Japan in recent past. Abe is trying to secure Japan’s energy supplying and he also visited Russia, Canada and Mozambique in the previous months.

Professor Satoru Mori presented his views on ‘’Japan’s Security Challenges’’ focusing main security challenges Japan is facing with. Mori stressed North Korea’s nuclear program development and its ballistic missiles development. Also, North Korea is facing internal power struggle and there is a question is it over or it is still ongoing process? Regarding PR China, professor Mori stressed that China has multiplied its military capacities without sufficient transparency. He also said that China is more and more acting in terms of unilateral actions trying to change status quo. Mori recognizes the rise of ‘gray zone’ situations within the East Asia. He also told that North Korea is already capable to strike Guam (U.S.) reaching between 2,500 and 4,000 km distance with its missiles. Chinese defense budget is four times larger than in previous year, stressed professor Mori. He has an opinion that Philippines are also under Chinese pressure and that it can cause further instability within the region. At the same time Japan is strengthening its international presence in security terms. The first National Strategy of Japan was adopted on December 17, 2013. Its main goals are maintaining peace, improvement of security environment and improvement of global environment. Japan also adopted the new NDPG in 2014. In his opinion Japan still has modest defense budget even though it is larger in compare to the last year’s defense budget. Japan is also faced with reinterpreting of the Article IX of the Constitution of Japan. It means reconsidering the rule of self defense only in the case of the direct attack against Japan. Some political parties are in favor of these changes and it is expected that LDP can count on their support regarding that issue. Japanese Self Defense Forces can act in two modes: 1) defensive operation (with approval of the Diet) and 2) other operation (police etc.). Mori believes that Japan – United States alliance will be updated till the end of 2014 having in mind current developments and the fact that it was last time revised in 1997. It will include cooperation in peacetime, response to the armed attack against Japan and cooperation related to the situation surrounding Japan. Japan also established National Security Council on December 4, 2013 and National Security Bureau on January 7, 2014.

During the Q/A session distinguished lecturers were speaking on energy dependence of Japan, territorial disputes within the region, stronger involvement of the U.S. and Russia in East Asia and about decline in Japan – South Korea relations.

Branko Lazic,

March 3, 2014