SARADNJA SRBIJE I EMIRATA

ETIHAD Airways

Avio kompanija „Etihad“ poseduje flotu 

od 72 aviona. Kompanija leti na 86 destinacija 

u svetu. Na čelu „Etihada“ nalazi se šeik 

Hamed bin Zajed Al Nahajan, brat šeika 

Mohameda bin Zajeda Al Nahajana koji je 

u nekoliko navrata boravio u Srbiji. 

photo: bif.rs

Nakon što je ministar Dinkić obavio susrete u Ujedinjenim Arapskim Emiratima 27. marta 2013. godine zalivski mediji ali i „Rojters“ i portali posvećeni avio transportu objavili su vesti u kojima se ističe da Srbija želi da izbegne nepovoljan scenario koji donosi kriza „evrozone“. Dobijanje kredita iz Emirata u iznosu od 400 miliona američkih dolara namenjenog poljoprivredi (50% za navodnjavanje; 50% za modernizaciju opreme u poljoprivredi) jedan je od koraka na putu smanjivanja zavisnosti srpske privrede od dešavanja u evrozoni.

„Jat Ervejz“ poseduje 14 (starijih) aviona
i leti na 30 destinacija u svetu

photo: tangosix.rs

U tekstovima koje su objavili „Rojters“, „Galf Dejli Njuz“, „Ervajz“, „Trejd A rabia“ ... pominje se ideja da renomirani avio prevoznik iz Emirata „Etihad“ preuzme 49% vlasništva u srpskom a vio  prevozniku „Jat Ervejzu“. Ministar Dinkić je najavio da bi do sredine aprila moglo biti konkretnih koraka po tom pitanju. Srbija je već u januaru sa UAE-om potpisala ugovor vredan 100 miliona EUR koji se odnosi na vojnu industriju. Sa Emiratima se ušlo i u posao oko izdavanja poljoprivrednog zemljišta nekoliko poljoprivrednih kombinata a u planu je i saradnja u elektronskoj industriji i novi projekti u vojnoj industriji. Među potencijalnim investicijama iz Emirata u Srbiju je i investicija iz bankarskog sektora odnosno otvaranje ispostave „Prve zalivske banke“ u Srbiji. Čitav paket investicija, ukoliko bude realizovan u potpunosti, može dostići vrednost i od milijardu evra što bi bio veliki podsticaj pokretanju srpske privrede koja stremi izlasku iz recesionih tokova.

Branko Lazić,

28.03.2013.

FORBS U GOSTIMA VLADE SRBIJE

Kristofer Forbs, photo: TANJUG

Nakon nekoliko dana provedenih u Srbiji gde su ga ugostili domaćini iz Vlade Srbije, potpredsednik kompanije Forbs, Kristofer Forbs obratio se zajedno sa premijerom Dačićem medijima u „pres sali“ Vlade Srbije. Prvo se novinarima obratio premijer Dačić koji je izrazio veliko zadovoljstvo i zahvalnost Forbsu zbog ispunjenog obećanja da će posetiti Srbiju. Dačić je rekao da je Forbs ovih dana bio u prilici da se upozna sa istorijskim, kulturnim i verskim nasleđem našeg naroda i da su nam potrebne dobre vesti iz Srbije a da Forbs može biti promoter te pozitivne klime iz Srbije.

Premijer je Forbsu predložio nekoliko aktivnosti počev od regionalne investicione konferencije koju bi mogli organizovati Vlada Srbije i kompanija „Forbs“. Istakao je i da je tokom boravka u Srbiji Kristofer Forbs upoznat sa mogućnostima i povoljnostima otpočinjanja poslovanja u Srbiji i da Srbija ne traži pomoć nego partnere. Kao potencijalno atraktivne privredne grane u Srbiji premijer je izdvojio energetiku, telekomunikacije, poljoprivredu, infrastrukturne radove ... Premijer je saopštio da ga je gospodin Forbs pozvao na svetsku konferenciju kompanije Forbs koja će biti održana u drugoj polovini ove godine. Za premijera je izuzetno značajno da važni ljudi iz sveta upoznaju Srbiju ne bi li Srbija došla u drugačiju odnosno bolju poziciju u svetu. Predsednik Vlade Srbije uručio je „Belog anđela“ kao poklon gostu iz Sjedinjenih Američkih Država. Pored Kristofera Forbsa u  njegovoj delegaciji su bili i njegov zet i unuk. Zanimljivo je i to da je Forbs poslednji put na ovim prostorima boravio pre 46 godina!

 

premijer Dačić uručuje poklon Kristoferu Forbsu,  photo: TANJUG

Na pitanje novinara koje oblasti prepoznaje kao najatraktivnije za ulaganje u Srbiju, Forbs je izjavio da su to telekomunikacije, energetika, automobilska industrija ... Istakao je povoljan geografski položaj koji kompanija „FIAT“ ima u Srbiji što joj omogućava dobre veze sa mnogim tržištima. Takođe je istakao i obrazovanu radnu snagu kao prednost Srbije. Jedno od novinarskih pitanja se odnosilo i na potencijalno balkansko izdanje „Forbsa“ na šta je potpredsednik kompanije Forbs izjavio da „Forbs“ ima 30 izdanja na 26 jezika ali da je u eri interneta web prezentacija odličan način za predstavljanje kompanije i njenih aktivnosti.

Poseta Kristofera Forbsa svakako može biti izuzetno korisna za Srbiju, pod uslovom da je gost iz Amerike zadovoljan onime što je video u Srbiji i to odluči preneti svojim moćnim prijateljima iz sveta biznisa. Premijer je zadovoljan ako bar jedan od ljudi sa „Forbsove liste“ dođe i investira u srpsku privredu.

Branko Lazić,

26/27. mart 2013. godine

Odnosi  NATO-a i Rusije

Odnosi NATO-a i Ruske Federacije predstavljaju izuzetno bitnu determinantu u funkcionisanju međunarodnih odnosa i u obezbeđivanju međunarodne stabilnosti. Radi se o složenim odnosima koji su evoluirali od nekadašnjih hladnoratovskih neprijateljskih odnosa do posthladnoratovskog partnerstva. Danas Rusija i NATO intenzivno sarađuju na pitanjima kakva su anti-terorizam, novi izazovi, rizici i pretnje ili Afganistan. Na samom Balkanu NATO i Rusija su uspešno sarađivali od 1996. do 2003. Kada je Rusija učestvovala u misijama SFOR i KFOR.  Ruska misija na Kosovu i Metohiji sa oko 3.000 pripadnika bila je najveći ne-NATO kontigent u južnoj srpskoj pokrajini pod združenom komandom na čelu sa NATO generalom.

Institucionalizacija saradnje NATO-Rusija otpočinje 1991. Formiranjem Severnoatlantskog saveta za saradnju da bi 1994. Bio oformljen program Partnerstvo za mir u kojem Rusija participira od samog početka i u kojem se danas nalaze 22 ne-NATO države, uključiv i Srbiju, kao i 28 NATO država članica. Bilateralna saradnja na relaciji Moskva – Brisel jača od 1997. donošenjem Osnivačkog akta NATO-Rusija tj. formiranjem komisije NATO-Rusija, ali će 1999. usled NATO bombardovanja SR Jugoslavije doći do zahlađenja datih odnosa i zamrzavanja saradnje. Naredne 2000. dolazi do normalizacije odnosa na datoj relaciji i obnavlja se rad komisije koja 2002. na rimskom samitu donošenjem Rimske deklaracije evoluira u Savet NATO – Rusija (NRC). Tom prilikom su se u Rimu našli najviši zvaničnici dvaju strana, predsednik Putin i generalni sekretar Robertson. Savet je koncipiran kao telo slično Savetu NATO-a tj. u njemu sede predstavnici 29 država, tj. 28 NATO članica i Rusije. Savetom predsedava generalni sekretar NATO-a, a odluke se donose konsenzusom. Pitanja koja se nalaze na dnevnom redu Saveta tiču se borbe protiv terorizma, upravljanja krizama, neširenja oružja za masovno uništavanje (OMU). Samit u Bukureštu 2008. unaprediće još više uspostavljeni institucionalni aranžman.

zasedanje Saveta NATO - Rusija u Sočiju 2011. godine

Ipak, bilo bi pretenciozno idealizovati odnose dojučerašnjih hladnoratovskih neprijatelja, što znači da u njihovim odnosima postoje i određena sporna pitanja usled kojih saradnja doživljava i zastoje poput onog u 2008. nakon ruske vojne intervencije u Gruziji. Proširenje NATO članstva, naročito dalje na istok, predstavlja nešto na šta Rusija ne gleda sa simpatijama. Ovo se posebno odnosi na tzv. „rusko predgrađe“ Ukrajinu i Gruziju koje su izrazile interes za članstvom u Alijansi na šta Alijansa gleda blagonaklono. Još jedno od spornih pitanja je i raketni štit koji je Bušova administracija planirala razmestiti u Poljskoj i Češkoj Republici, ali je predsednik Obama rešio da pristupi konstruktivnijem dijalogu sa Moskovom po datom pitanju i da zamrzne ideju o planiranim vojnim kapacitetima u dvema zemljama.

16. decembra 2009. godine novoimenovani generalni sekretar NATO-a Anders Fog Rasmusen posetio je Moskvu sa ciljem obnove partnerskih odnosa sa Moskvom što je naišlo na pozitivne signale iz Kremlja. Teme moskovskih razgovora bili su Afganistan, borba protiv terorizma, OMU, a Rasmusen je istakao da je jedan od glavnih ciljeva u toku njegovog mandata upravo jačanje i obnova saradnje sa Moskvom. Tom prilikom premijer Putin je pomenuo i dešavanja u Gruziji kao i pitanja konvencionalnog naoružanja. Predsednik Medvedev je Rasmusenu izneo ideju novog pan-evropskog bezbednosnog sporazuma te se može zaključiti da su vođeni konstruktivni razgovori iz kojih se mogu očekivati dalji pomaci u saradnji dvaju strana.

Ministar spoljnih poslova Ruske Federacije
Sergej Lavrov na zasedanju NRC-a

Među oblastima u kojima Rusija i NATO imaju „zajednički jezik“ na polju vojno-političke saradnje nalaze se: 1) borba protiv terorizma (razmena informacija, vežbe, civilna zaštita, iskustva ...), 2) Afganistan (borba protiv trgovine narkoticima, kopneni tranzit ne vojne NATO opreme preko ruske teritorije od marta 2008.), 3) vojno-vojna saradnja (ka postizanju interoperabilnosti), 4) spašavanje i potrage na moru, 5) reforma sistema odbrane, 6) prekvalifikacija vojnog kadra, 7) saradnja odbrambenih industrija (studije i izveštaji do sada), 8) upravljanje krizama (BiH, Kosovo ...), 9) raketna odbrana (vežbe), 10) nadzor vazdušnog prostora (antiterorizam), 11) neširenje OMU-a, 12)kontrola (konvencionalnog) naoružanja, 13) nuklearno oružje (vežbe odgovora na katastrofe), 14) civilna zaštita (suošavanje sa posledicama terorističkih napadaČ vežbe: Bogorodsk 2001, Kalinjingrad 2004 i Montelibreti 2006.; rusko-mađarska inicijativa za razvojem sposobnosti brzog razmeštanja trupa – Rapud Deployment Capability) i 15) nove pretnje, rizici i izazovi (zaštita okoline, eko-terorizam, psihološke posledice terorizma, sajber bezbednost, zaštita od napada hemijskih, bioloških i radioloških faktora ...).

Branko Lazić,

mart 2010.

Посета Штефана Филеа Београду

Филеово обраћање новинарима у Влади Србије, photo: TANJUG

У оквиру дипломатске офанзиве која претходи седмој рунди разговора које, уз посредовање ЕУ, воде Београд и Приштина, главни град Србије 18. марта је посетио европски комесар задужен за проширење Европске уније. Чешки политичар и високи функционер ЕУ, Штефан Филе сусрео се са кључним политичким чиниоцима у Србији међу којима се издвајају председник и премијер Србије, али и лидери две највеће политичке странке у земљи.

На конференцији за новинаре одржаној у Влади Србије премијер Ивица Дачић истакао је да је кључно постићи видљив и одржив напредак у дијалогу са Приштином. Нагласио је да је пред нама важна недеља и да су у Србији поред Филеа и посланици Бундестага (од којих у великој мери зависи „зелено светло“ за почетак преговора о чланству Србије у ЕУ). Већ у среду је нова рунда преговора у Бриселу, а у петак је и седница Савета безбедности ОУН-а о Косову и Метохији. Премијер је нагласио да су пред нама важне и крупне политичке одлуке. Дачић је нагласио да Србија тежи ка циљу у преговорима не због датума у мају већ због тога што жели да се у дијалогу дође до одрживог решења које ће омогућити нормалан живот на Косову и Метохији. Први човек Владе Србије истакао је да је актуелна влада остварила значајне помаке током свог мандата и издвојио је ботбу против корупције, реформу правосуђа и рад на стандардизацији законодавства. Нагласио је да Србија и пре отпочињања преговора са ЕУ жели да створи компатибилан систем са Унијом. Премијер је своје излагање завршио речима да је пуно урађено и да су можда због тога и очекивања постала превелика.

Штефан Филе је у свом обраћању истакао да је ово још једна у низу посета Београду и да сматра да нема потребе више ни да их броји. За њега је кључно у актуелном дијалогу са Приштином доћи до видљивих и одрживих решења. Пажњу је усмерио на осетљиво питање севера Косова. Уједно је истакао и подршку Европске уније европским (ЕУ) амбицијама Србије. Нагласио је да су за Србију изузетно важне дугорочне стратегије и њихова одрживост. Посебно су важни отворена јавна дебата и консултације у оквиру саме Србије. С тим у вези он је најавио у току дана и сусрет са лидерм Демократске странке Драганом Ђиласом.

На питање новинара шта мисли о изјави премијера Дачића да је Србија, имајући у виду остварене помаке, заслужила датум за почетак преговора са ЕУ, без обзира на исход разговора са Приштином, Филе је одговорио да је данас 18. март и да до 20. марта имамо још два дана за дијалог и да ће на државам чланицама ЕУ бити доношење одлуке о почетку преговора.

Очигледно је да ЕУ односно Европска комисија али и други органи ЕУ имају врло јасан и ригидан став по питању отпочињања преговора Србије са ЕУ директно га везујући на првом месту за политички критеријум (дијалог са Приштином) уз мању пажњу техничким аспектима приступања Унији. Имајући у виду турбулентну прошлост Србије и постјугословенску транзицију Србија очигледно има делоко трновитији европски пут него ли што га је имала Филеова Чешка, али то је реалност коју Србија хтела или не хтела мора прихватити уколико жели ићи напред.

Бранко Лазић,

19. март 2013.

ZAUSTAVI MRŽNJU, NE OKLEVAJ!

16. marta 2013. godine Novi Sad je imao prilku da se upozna sa mladim entuzijastima koji su se okupili sa namerom promocije ljubavi i tolerancije među ljudima na socijalnim mrežama ali i u svim ostalim sferama života. Akcija pod nazivom „Stop the hate, do not hesitate“ (Zaustavi mržnju, ne oklevaj) predstavlja projekat iza kog su stali European Youth Foundation koji deluje pod okriljem Saveta Evrope (Council of Europe) i domaća nevladina organizacija „Education Assosiation“ iz Novog Sada. Dvadesetak mladih i veselih volontera animirali su svoje sugrađane po hladnom ali sunčanom i prijatnom subotnjem poslepodnevu deleći im poruke ljubavi, slatkiše, balone i nudeći im da sami napišu svoje poruke tolerancije. Najmlađi, ali i oni dosta stariji, okušali su se u bojenju flomasterima a učesnici projekta su prisutnima priredili i plesnu koreografiju u Zmaj Jovinoj ulici. 

Opšti je utisak da su mladi i pozitivnom energijom ispunjeni ljudi preneli pozitivnu poruku svom okruženju, a poruka glasi „Zaustavi mržnju, ne oklevaj!“.

Branko Lazić,

18. mart 2013. godine

CHICAGO SUMMIT

AND THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN FRONT OF THE NATO

NATO leaders at the Chicago Summit, 2012

NATO’s summit held in Chicago this May was focused primarily on verifying previously arranged strategies dealing with Afghanistan and missile defense system in Europe. The second topic is not warmly perceived in Moscow and therefore it is very sensitive issue in international relations today. Summit was held in Chicago (Illinois) on 20^th and 21^st May 2012. The summit was held in president Obama’s home town and this was the first time that summit was organized in United States out of the US capital Washington DC.

First phase of anti-missile shield started when allies activated the AGS (Alliance Ground Surveillance) in Sigonela military base located in Italian town Catania. Full operability of the anti-missile shield will be reached in 2018. The AGS will be located in several European countries. Beside Italy among these countries are Spain, Poland and Romania. US military ships will be based in Spain and missiles SM-3 will be located in Eastern Europe.  It is expected that the AGS will be fully empowered and ready for use as a NATO system between 2015 and 2017. In meantime 600 additional troops will be moved to Sigonela base.  President Obama emphasized that NATO represents bedrock of western security, freedom and prosperity for 63 years. The President also underlined that the Alliance had crucial role in the reconstruction of post war Europe and that NATO survived Cold War. NATO also accepted as its new member states former Soviet allies and brought peace to Balkans, said Obama. American president believes that the power of the Alliance is in common energy of all NATO members and that NATO today represents pillar of international security and peace.  Military intervention in Libya shows how European, Middle Eastern and North African countries can cooperate in delivering of world stability, said US president.

First document signed at the Summit was related to the ‘’Smart Defense’’ project which started this February. It is launched by 13 NATO member states (Italy, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Luxembourg, Norway, Slovakia, Slovenia and United States). The project includes engagement of five unmanned aircrafts, common command and control unit. These objectives definitely correspond with previously mentioned Obama’s philosophy of common defense. No doubt it is a long-term strategy consisted of: 1) tangible package of multinational projects aimed to address critical capability shortfalls, 2) longer-term multinational projects including missile defense, Alliance Ground Surveillance and air policing and 3) strategic projects for 2020 covering areas such as Surveillance and Reconnaissance, Joint Intelligence and air-to-air refueling.

ISAF troops in Afghanistan

Besides dealing with new risks and threats which were recognized at the Lisbon Summit in 2010 one of the main Chicago Summit’s topics was Afghanistan and withdrawal of ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) troops led by NATO. ISAF is present in Afghanistan since 2001 and its main role is to stabilize security but also and to stabilize political and economic life in country together with Afghan authorities.  The security is still fragile on south-east of Afghanistan where Taliban insurgents are still located. The Alliance and its ISAF partners want to reach safe transition of security tasks to Afghan security forces till 2014.   That is one of the three main Chicago Summit’s topics which include: 1) The Alliance’s commitment to Afghanistan through transition and beyond 2) ensuring that the Alliance has the capabilities it needs to defend its population and territory and 3) ensuring that the Alliance has the capacity to deal with the challenges of the 21^st century including strengthening NATO’s network of partners worldwide.    

Among the participants at the Summit there were and officials of Pakistan. In the previous years, especially after Bin Laden’s capture in Pakistan and because of different approaches in dealing with the Taliban insurgency relations between United States and Pakistan are declining. US air strikes in November 2011 caused death of 24 Pakistani soldiers and that was cause for some kind of freezing of bilateral relations between these two countries. Since then Pakistan refuses to allow ISAF troops movement over its territory and therefore ISAF must move its troops over Russia and Central Asian countries. It is much complicated and more expensive route than it is Pakistan’s route. Pakistani authorities demanded 20 times more money than before the November airstrikes. It was unacceptable prize for ISAF. In meantime Pakistan reopened ISAF supply lines after US Secretary of State apologized for the killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers.  At the Chicago Summit arrived Pakistan’s foreign minister Ms. Hina Rabbani Khar who had spoken with the US officials about fragility of the Pakistani-Afghan border. Pakistan’s officials were informed that the Alliance believes that Pakistan can be part of the solution in Afghanistan.  In Chicago also arrived and Pakistani president Mr. Asif Ali Zardari. Mr. Zardari didn’t receive official reception but he had an opportunity to hold short triple dialogue with US and Afghan president.

The key European partners within NATO: 

French president Francois Hollande and 

German chancellor Angela Merkel

Overall conclusion of the United States and its Allies is that the war in Afghanistan is a very long and expensive one and that Talibans still represent threat for Afghan national security. Allies don’t intend to abandon Afghans. Actually they don’t intend to leave them unprepared for dealing with the Taliban insurgency.  Today Afghan security forces defend 75% of Afghan population. Area at the south and at the east of Afghanistan remains to be unstable in security terms. United States will be present in Afghanistan and after the official withdrawal of ISAF in 2014. One part of the US troops will remain in Afghanistan as the advisors of the Afghan security forces. Among the main problems Afghans are facing with is the fact that Afghans don’t have enough resources to finance their defense. It is estimated that Afghanistan needs around 4.1 billion US dollars on annual level if they want to have efficient defense forces.  One of the tasks in front of the United States and its allies is to help Afghanistan to provide these financial recourses. Anyway, there is no doubt that US and some other NATO members are ready to conduct training and to support Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). In the coming transition period the ANSF will take over responsibilities from ISAF. Chicago Summit showed that there is no common approach on ISAF withdrawal. New French president already decided to withdraw 3,400 troops from Afghanistan till the end of 2012. There is also US complaint that many NATO members spend less than 1.6% of their GNP on defense. United States who spends around 4% of their GNP on defense expects more solidarity from other member states. Therefore, solving the Afghan problem also lies in quality of solidarity and common approach within NATO. If NATO succeeds to strengthen its solidarity the solution for Afghan problem will be more likely 11 years after the start of ISAF mission.

Branko Lazic,

July 2012

Western Balkans on 

the Euro-Atlantic Way

Secretary general of NATO  in visit to Montenegro
 (photo: www.gov.me)

More than a decade after the end of period of permanent hostilities on the Balkans peninsula it is still difficult to speak about prosperous and democratized region. There are many reasons why it is not the case but it is obvious that some progress has been made in the previous decade. Some Western Balkan states are already integrated in the Alliance and one of them is going to become EU member state next year. The years of violence are behind the Balkans and it is unlikely to expect new tectonic moves within region but there are several very sensitive issues which need to be resolved if West wants to see peaceful and developed Western Balkans integrated in the NATO and EU. NATO membership seems easier to be achieved but that might be wrongly perceived because some countries still can’t rebuild relations with the Alliance even though it was expected at the beginning of 2000’s.

After the adoption of the NATO’s New Strategic Concept in November 2010 it is clear to everyone that NATO’s doors remain open to any European country in a position to undertake the commitments and obligations of membership. Primarily it can be directed toward Western Balkan countries which are already deeply involved in the process of Euro-Atlantic integration. Albania and Croatia already reached the goal of the NATO membership on 1 April 2009 at Strasbourg-Kehl Summit. In December 2009 NATO foreign ministers decided to invite Montenegro to join the Membership Action Plan. At the same time Bosnia and Herzegovina was informed that it will join the Alliance once it has achieved necessary progress in its reform efforts. Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) is in the state of ‘frozen dialogue’ with the NATO and EU because of the country’s name dispute with Greece. The case of Serbia remains controversial because of the Kosovo’s dispute and NATO intervention in 1999 and Serbia still tries to re-establish good relations within region and with the western states. Serbia has a lot of success in the building of good relations with its neighbors, especially with Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Of course, it is not an easy task especially after most of EU and NATO member states, but also most of neighbor states recognized unilateral declaration of Kosovo’s independence in February 2008.   

Bosnian co-president Nebojsa Radmanovic after Bosnia-Herzegovina decided to join PfP (2006)

Discussing the issue of the Western Balkans Euro-Atlantic integrations demands dealing with the fact that NATO membership for most of the European countries was one step before their EU membership. It is sort of unofficial pre-condition for the EU membership if we take a look at the EU integrations of the former communist countries. All Western Balkan countries belong to that category and they hardly can be compared with non-communist EU entries Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Albania definitely belong to the group of countries which need to carefully balance their Atlanticism with their Europeanism.        

European Union and NATO strongly cooperate within the Western Balkan area. Berlin Plus is just one of the modalities of their cooperation in the previous years. European Union continued to build peace and stability in Bosnia-Herzegovina since December 2004 within operation Althea. In FYROM EU has been leading operation Concordia after NATO finished its Operation Allied Harmony. European Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) represents mission which has a goal to achieve legal and administrative improvements within Kosovo’s society. At the same time NATO leads KFOR mission in the still fragile area.  It must be underlined that EU at its summit in Thessaloniki in 2003 declared that ‘’the future of the Balkans is within the EU’’. It was signal of strong support to Western Balkans on their European way. 

Macedonian prime minister in visit to NATO, 2007

If we take a look on the concrete developments per countries it can be concluded that there are several groups of Western Balkan states in dealing with the NATO integration. Albania and Croatia already fulfilled their membership goal. Montenegro is on the good rout towards Alliance. FYROM and Bosnia and Herzegovina are blocked because of several disputes. Finally, Serbia decided to declare military neutrality in 2007 and even though it participates in the Partnership for Peace Programme there are no signals that Serbia will choose membership policy. European Union membership is common goal for all Western Balkan countries. Croatia successfully concluded its accession negotiations with EU and on 1 July 2013 Croatia will become EU member country. FYROM applied to become an official candidate on 22 March 2004 and it was formally named as an EU membership candidate on 17 December 2005, but there is no progress regarding opening dialogue on the membership accession because of the previously mentioned country name’s dispute. Macedonia (FYROM) also has some difficulties in reaching European standards on the rule of law and the economy. Albania applied for EU membership on 28 April 2009 but it didn’t get the candidate status yet. Albania candidacy status was not recognized in December 2010 primarily because of long lasting row in the country. Regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina there are many economic as political problems which are interrupting Bosnia’s Euro-Atlantic integrations. Bosnia concluded its Stabilization and Association Agreement negotiations in December 2007 signing the SAA in 2008. Their potential toward EU membership can be described in former EC chairman words. Mr. Prodi stated that Bosnia and Herzegovina has a chance of joining EU soon after Croatia, but it is entirely dependent on the country progress. Of course, that progress can be understood as a dialogue and common policy among Bosnia’s entities leaderships. Some steps forward were taken in the previous years but there is still a lot of room for improvement and that might be the main reason why Bosnia and Herzegovina didn’t decide to apply for EU candidate status. After obtaining the independence in mid 2006 Montenegro very soon submitted its EU membership application. Montenegro officially submitted its candidacy to the EC on 15 December 2009. After successful fulfillment of the EC’s questionnaire Montenegro gained candidate status on 17 December 2010.  

Serbian foreign minister meets NATO
Secretary General in 2007

The largest country in the region, Serbia has started its SAA negotiations with EU in November 2005. On 29 April 2008 EU and Serbia signed Stabilisation and Association Agreement and officially applied for the EU membership on 19 December 2009. During its stabilization and accession talks Serbia had many problems mainly because of the lack in cooperation with the Hague Tribunal (ICTY) and because of misunderstanding with the most of EU and NATO member states regarding the status of Kosovo which Serbia considers as its southern province under UN control. In the meantime Serbia arrested all war crimes suspects including Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic. Serbia answered on the EC’s legislative questionnaire in a shortest possible period. Commission decided that Serbia has fulfilled all technical pre-conditions to become EU candidate. The last developments regarding Belgrade-Pristina dialogue have delayed Council’s decision to grant Serbia candidate status. Serbia now hopes to receive full candidate status in March this year. The main obstacle towards EU accession of Kosovo is in the different position of the EU members on the Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence. Five of the EU member states still don’t recognize Kosovo’s independence and there is no space for official dialogue between Brussels and Pristina. Kosovo remains very fragile area with serious challenges related to the rule of law, fight against corruption and organized crime, the strengthening of administrative capacities and protection of the Serbs and other minorities.

Consequences of  1999 NATO bombing of Serbia 

Looking toward future NATO enlargement the largest chances for gaining full membership has Montenegro. Montenegro joined PfP in December 2006 together with Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Since April 2008 Montenegrin Government was engaged in an Intensified Dialogue with NATO. Next year in December 2009 Montenegro was invited to join the Membership Action Plan. NATO’s Secretary General Mr. Rasmussen in June 2009 commended Montenegro’s political leaders for their courage and determination. He encouraged them to continue their efforts saying that it is of utmost importance to ensure that Montenegrin security agencies and defense sector meet NATO requirements. He emphasized the need for further fight against corruption and organized crime in Montenegro. FYROM joined PfP much before other former Yugoslavia republics. Macedonia started to cooperate with NATO within PfP since 1995. Because of long-standing name dispute with Greece there is a serious impediment to Macedonia’s NATO membership aspirations. Official Athens demands that Skopje add a geographic qualifier in the country’s name to differentiate it from Greece’s province of Macedonia. There were presented several proposals for FYROM to adopt the name among which are ‘’Republic of Vardar Macedonia’’ and ‘’Republic of Northern Macedonia’’. Within Macedonia there is strong resistance among Slavic majority (65% of population) toward change of state’s name even if it can stop further Euro-Atlantic integrations. If we take a look on the polls there is a strong support to NATO’s membership of Macedonia and it is around 80% if there is no name dispute issue on agenda. Talking about support there is still low support among Montenegrin population toward full NATO membership and support slowly rises and it is now on 36% in favor of membership with 34% of population opposing it. If you ask Montenegrin population (one third of population declare themselves as Serbs) do they support EU membership of Montenegro the answer will be much better with 66% of Montenegro citizens supporting country’s EU membership. Obviously Serbian population in Montenegro favors more EU than it favors NATO and it can be explained with the 1999 NATO intervention against Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.  Bosnia and Herzegovina was granted conditional MAP in April 2010. Bosnia has in its possession considerable stockpiles of excess weaponry, including almost 70,000 rifles and pistols along with explosive ordnance and ammunition in excess of around 20,000 tons. Even though military infrastructure and command were integrated in 2006 there is still lack in control of military hardware. Two entities haven’t found yet compromise regarding that issue and it causes serious difficulties on Bosnia’s Euro-Atlantic way. If there is added the fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina remains to be dysfunctional state with weak central government it is clear why Bosnia still doesn’t move fast enough toward the EU and NATO. With Bosnian Muslims demanding strong central government, Bosnian Croats demanding more autonomy for Croats within Federation Bosnia-Herzegovina (Muslim-Croat entity covering 51% of Bosnia and Herzegovina) and Bosnian Serbs frequently asking for secession of its entity (Republika Srpska which covers 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina) if Bosnian Muslims continue to insist on the state’s centralization it is very difficult to expect some reforms within this multi-ethnic country. Serbia with its Government tries to build good relations with West but at the same time tries to keep Kosovo under its sovereignty what caused serious disturbances in Serbia’s relations with majority of NATO and EU member states since 2007 when Serbian Assembly adopted Resolution on military neutrality of Serbia and especially after Kosovo’s declaration of independence in February 2008. Even official Belgrade declared neutrality policy there have been taken some important steps toward NATO admission of Serbia. The Serbian parliament recognized the 1995 massacre of more than 7,000 civilians in Srebrenica during the Bosnian war recognizing that there were and large non-Serb victims in that area. Serbian government is showing serious efforts in the policy of coexistence with Albanians and prove of that is ongoing dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. Anyway there is a still strong anti-NATO sentiment among the Serbian people. It is mainly related to the NATO bombing campaign against FR Yugoslavia in 1999 and it is obvious that this challenge must to be overcome if Serbia wants to join NATO. There is opened dialogue between Serbia and western partners on Kosovo’s issues disagreement. During his visit to Balkans in 2009 US vice president Joseph Biden expressed the belief that the United States and Serbia could ‘’agree to disagree’’ on Kosovo. Support to Serbia’s membership in NATO is very low currently and it is only 15.6% in favor of membership with 66.3% of Serbian population opposing it. In the case of Bosnia there is around 70% of population fully or partly supporting country’s membership in the Alliance. Here should be underlined that the politics of military neutrality of Serbia hasn’t been clearly defined either by the Resolution or by any following documents outlining Serbia’s security policies such as the National Security Strategy and Defense Strategy approved by the Serbian Parliament in October 2009. Serbia all this time continues to reform its Army and does it with a lot of success following the fulfillment of NATO standards. Serbian military industry is the largest in region wit around $ 400 million sold weapons mostly in Iraq ($ 285 million). There are opinions that NATO membership would allow Serbia to develop this industry further. Serbia also intensified its dialogue with NATO since 2008. Last year there was organized NATO’s Strategic Military Conference in Belgrade gathering 200 military officials from 55 countries. At the same time there is a strong cooperation between Serbian Army and National Guard of Ohio. One of the signals that Western Balkan countries began to play role of peace facilitator is the fact that all Western Balkan countries participate in international military missions. With exception of Serbia which participates only in the UN missions other Western Balkan states take part in ISAF mission led by NATO in Afghanistan. Croatia has the largest troops (312) deployed in Afghanistan followed by Albania (286) and FYROM (163). Bosnia and Herzegovina participates with 55 troops and Montenegro has 37 troops in Afghanistan.

         

Serbian Army head official meeting NATO officer in 2011

NATO’s position regarding the future Alliance enlargement within Western Balkans area can be described with the NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s words: ‘’NATO’s vision for the Western Balkans region is clear: Euro-Atlantic integration is the best guarantee for peace, progress and prosperity…It is up to political leaders across the Western Balkans to demonstrate the courage and determination to create better future for their own nations, and for the entire region.’’ These words definitely shows the NATO’s willingness to strengthen its presence in region but any discussing of that issue demands opened dialogue regarding several important issues as it is the willingness of regional governments to fight against widespread corruption, accepting the fact that Russian Federation has strong influence in region and that official Moscow doesn’t favor further enlargement of NATO in Balkans. Finally Western Balkan countries must resolve their internal disputes which are still present. That means that the solution compromise will not ask Serbia to lose everything, nor Kosovo Albanians should be perceived as receiving everything. It can be achieved by constructive dialogue and with support of Western allies. The same must be done in case of Macedonia’s name dispute. With the policy of compromise and sustainable regional development Western Balkans can be fully integrated in the community of developed democracies.

     

Branko Lazic,

February, 2012

Article published in the Atlantic Voices Vol. 2

Brussels/Belgium