Western
Balkans on
 |
| Secretary general of NATO in visit to Montenegro (photo: www.gov.me) |
More than a decade after the end of
period of permanent hostilities on the Balkans peninsula it is still difficult
to speak about prosperous and democratized region. There are many reasons why
it is not the case but it is obvious that some progress has been made in the
previous decade. Some Western Balkan states are already integrated in the
Alliance and one of them is going to become EU member state next year. The
years of violence are behind the Balkans and it is unlikely to expect new
tectonic moves within region but there are several very sensitive issues which
need to be resolved if West wants to see peaceful and developed Western Balkans
integrated in the NATO and EU. NATO membership seems easier to be achieved but
that might be wrongly perceived because some countries still can’t rebuild
relations with the Alliance even though it was expected at the beginning of
2000’s.
After the adoption of the NATO’s New
Strategic Concept in November 2010 it is clear to everyone that NATO’s doors
remain open to any European country in a position to undertake the commitments
and obligations of membership. Primarily it can be directed toward Western
Balkan countries which are already deeply involved in the process of Euro-Atlantic
integration. Albania and Croatia already reached the goal of the NATO
membership on 1 April 2009 at Strasbourg-Kehl Summit. In December 2009 NATO
foreign ministers decided to invite Montenegro to join the Membership Action
Plan. At the same time Bosnia and Herzegovina was informed that it will join
the Alliance once it has achieved necessary progress in its reform efforts.
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) is in the state of ‘frozen
dialogue’ with the NATO and EU because of the country’s name dispute with
Greece. The case of Serbia remains controversial because of the Kosovo’s
dispute and NATO intervention in 1999 and Serbia still tries to re-establish
good relations within region and with the western states. Serbia has a lot of
success in the building of good relations with its neighbors, especially with
Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Of course, it is not an easy task
especially after most of EU and NATO member states, but also most of neighbor
states recognized unilateral declaration of Kosovo’s independence in February
2008.
 |
| Bosnian co-president Nebojsa Radmanovic after Bosnia-Herzegovina decided to join PfP (2006) |
Discussing the issue of the Western
Balkans Euro-Atlantic integrations demands dealing with the fact that NATO
membership for most of the European countries was one step before their EU
membership. It is sort of unofficial pre-condition for the EU membership if we
take a look at the EU integrations of the former communist countries. All
Western Balkan countries belong to that category and they hardly can be
compared with non-communist EU entries Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Montenegro and Albania definitely belong to the group of countries which need
to carefully balance their Atlanticism with their Europeanism.
European Union and NATO strongly
cooperate within the Western Balkan area. Berlin Plus is just one of the
modalities of their cooperation in the previous years. European Union continued
to build peace and stability in Bosnia-Herzegovina since December 2004 within
operation Althea. In FYROM EU has been leading operation Concordia after NATO finished
its Operation Allied Harmony. European Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX)
represents mission which has a goal to achieve legal and administrative
improvements within Kosovo’s society. At the same time NATO leads KFOR mission
in the still fragile area. It must be
underlined that EU at its summit in Thessaloniki in 2003 declared that ‘’the
future of the Balkans is within the EU’’. It was signal of strong support to
Western Balkans on their European way.
 |
| Macedonian prime minister in visit to NATO, 2007 |
If we take a look on the concrete
developments per countries it can be concluded that there are several groups of
Western Balkan states in dealing with the NATO integration. Albania and Croatia
already fulfilled their membership goal. Montenegro is on the good rout towards
Alliance. FYROM and Bosnia and Herzegovina are blocked because of several
disputes. Finally, Serbia decided to declare military neutrality in 2007 and
even though it participates in the Partnership for Peace Programme there are no
signals that Serbia will choose membership policy. European Union membership is
common goal for all Western Balkan countries. Croatia successfully concluded
its accession negotiations with EU and on 1 July 2013 Croatia will become EU
member country. FYROM applied to become an official candidate on 22 March 2004
and it was formally named as an EU membership candidate on 17 December 2005,
but there is no progress regarding opening dialogue on the membership accession
because of the previously mentioned country name’s dispute. Macedonia (FYROM)
also has some difficulties in reaching European standards on the rule of law
and the economy. Albania applied for EU membership on 28 April 2009 but it
didn’t get the candidate status yet. Albania candidacy status was not
recognized in December 2010 primarily because of long lasting row in the
country. Regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina there are many economic as political
problems which are interrupting Bosnia’s Euro-Atlantic integrations. Bosnia
concluded its Stabilization and Association Agreement negotiations in December
2007 signing the SAA in 2008. Their potential toward EU membership can be
described in former EC chairman words. Mr. Prodi stated that Bosnia and
Herzegovina has a chance of joining EU soon after Croatia, but it is entirely
dependent on the country progress. Of course, that progress can be understood
as a dialogue and common policy among Bosnia’s entities leaderships. Some steps
forward were taken in the previous years but there is still a lot of room for
improvement and that might be the main reason why Bosnia and Herzegovina didn’t
decide to apply for EU candidate status. After obtaining the independence in
mid 2006 Montenegro very soon submitted its EU membership application.
Montenegro officially submitted its candidacy to the EC on 15 December 2009. After
successful fulfillment of the EC’s questionnaire Montenegro gained candidate
status on 17 December 2010.
 |
| Serbian foreign minister meets NATO Secretary General in 2007 |
The largest
country in the region, Serbia has started its SAA negotiations with EU in
November 2005. On 29 April 2008 EU and Serbia signed Stabilisation and Association
Agreement and officially applied for the EU membership on 19 December 2009.
During its stabilization and accession talks Serbia had many problems mainly
because of the lack in cooperation with the Hague Tribunal (ICTY) and because of
misunderstanding with the most of EU and NATO member states regarding the
status of Kosovo which Serbia considers as its southern province under UN
control. In the meantime Serbia arrested all war crimes suspects including
Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic. Serbia answered on the EC’s legislative
questionnaire in a shortest possible period. Commission decided that Serbia has
fulfilled all technical pre-conditions to become EU candidate. The last
developments regarding Belgrade-Pristina dialogue have delayed Council’s
decision to grant Serbia candidate status. Serbia now hopes to receive full
candidate status in March this year. The main obstacle towards EU accession of
Kosovo is in the different position of the EU members on the Kosovo’s 2008
declaration of independence. Five of the EU member states still don’t recognize
Kosovo’s independence and there is no space for official dialogue between
Brussels and Pristina. Kosovo remains very fragile area with serious challenges
related to the rule of law, fight against corruption and organized crime, the
strengthening of administrative capacities and protection of the Serbs and
other minorities.
 |
| Consequences of 1999 NATO bombing of Serbia |
Looking toward future NATO enlargement
the largest chances for gaining full membership has Montenegro. Montenegro joined
PfP in December 2006 together with Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Since April
2008 Montenegrin Government was engaged in an Intensified Dialogue with NATO.
Next year in December 2009 Montenegro was invited to join the Membership Action
Plan. NATO’s Secretary General Mr. Rasmussen in June 2009 commended
Montenegro’s political leaders for their courage and determination. He
encouraged them to continue their efforts saying that it is of utmost
importance to ensure that Montenegrin security agencies and defense sector meet
NATO requirements. He emphasized the need for further fight against corruption
and organized crime in Montenegro. FYROM joined PfP much before other former
Yugoslavia republics. Macedonia started to cooperate with NATO within PfP since
1995. Because of long-standing name dispute with Greece there is a serious impediment
to Macedonia’s NATO membership aspirations. Official Athens demands that Skopje
add a geographic qualifier in the country’s name to differentiate it from
Greece’s province of Macedonia. There were presented several proposals for
FYROM to adopt the name among which are ‘’Republic of Vardar Macedonia’’ and
‘’Republic of Northern Macedonia’’. Within Macedonia there is strong resistance
among Slavic majority (65% of population) toward change of state’s name even if
it can stop further Euro-Atlantic integrations. If we take a look on the polls
there is a strong support to NATO’s membership of Macedonia and it is around
80% if there is no name dispute issue on agenda. Talking about support there is
still low support among Montenegrin population toward full NATO membership and
support slowly rises and it is now on 36% in favor of membership with 34% of
population opposing it. If you ask Montenegrin population (one third of
population declare themselves as Serbs) do they support EU membership of
Montenegro the answer will be much better with 66% of Montenegro citizens
supporting country’s EU membership. Obviously Serbian population in Montenegro
favors more EU than it favors NATO and it can be explained with the 1999 NATO
intervention against Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Bosnia and Herzegovina was granted conditional
MAP in April 2010. Bosnia has in its possession considerable stockpiles of
excess weaponry, including almost 70,000 rifles and pistols along with
explosive ordnance and ammunition in excess of around 20,000 tons. Even though
military infrastructure and command were integrated in 2006 there is still lack
in control of military hardware. Two entities haven’t found yet compromise
regarding that issue and it causes serious difficulties on Bosnia’s
Euro-Atlantic way. If there is added the fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina
remains to be dysfunctional state with weak central government it is clear why
Bosnia still doesn’t move fast enough toward the EU and NATO. With Bosnian
Muslims demanding strong central government, Bosnian Croats demanding more
autonomy for Croats within Federation Bosnia-Herzegovina (Muslim-Croat entity
covering 51% of Bosnia and Herzegovina) and Bosnian Serbs frequently asking for
secession of its entity (Republika Srpska which covers 49% of Bosnia and
Herzegovina) if Bosnian Muslims continue to insist on the state’s
centralization it is very difficult to expect some reforms within this
multi-ethnic country. Serbia with its Government tries to build good relations
with West but at the same time tries to keep Kosovo under its sovereignty what
caused serious disturbances in Serbia’s relations with majority of NATO and EU
member states since 2007 when Serbian Assembly adopted Resolution on military
neutrality of Serbia and especially after Kosovo’s declaration of independence
in February 2008. Even official Belgrade declared neutrality policy there have
been taken some important steps toward NATO admission of Serbia. The Serbian
parliament recognized the 1995 massacre of more than 7,000 civilians in
Srebrenica during the Bosnian war recognizing that there were and large
non-Serb victims in that area. Serbian government is showing serious efforts in
the policy of coexistence with Albanians and prove of that is ongoing dialogue
between Belgrade and Pristina. Anyway there is a still strong anti-NATO
sentiment among the Serbian people. It is mainly related to the NATO bombing
campaign against FR Yugoslavia in 1999 and it is obvious that this challenge
must to be overcome if Serbia wants to join NATO. There is opened dialogue
between Serbia and western partners on Kosovo’s issues disagreement. During his
visit to Balkans in 2009 US vice president Joseph Biden expressed the belief
that the United States and Serbia could ‘’agree to disagree’’ on Kosovo. Support
to Serbia’s membership in NATO is very low currently and it is only 15.6% in
favor of membership with 66.3% of Serbian population opposing it. In the case
of Bosnia there is around 70% of population fully or partly supporting
country’s membership in the Alliance. Here should be underlined that the
politics of military neutrality of Serbia hasn’t been clearly defined either by
the Resolution or by any following documents outlining Serbia’s security
policies such as the National Security Strategy and Defense Strategy approved
by the Serbian Parliament in October 2009. Serbia all this time continues to
reform its Army and does it with a lot of success following the fulfillment of
NATO standards. Serbian military industry is the largest in region wit around $
400 million sold weapons mostly in Iraq ($ 285 million). There are opinions
that NATO membership would allow Serbia to develop this industry further.
Serbia also intensified its dialogue with NATO since 2008. Last year there was
organized NATO’s Strategic Military Conference in Belgrade gathering 200
military officials from 55 countries. At the same time there is a strong
cooperation between Serbian Army and National Guard of Ohio. One of the signals
that Western Balkan countries began to play role of peace facilitator is the
fact that all Western Balkan countries participate in international military
missions. With exception of Serbia which participates only in the UN missions
other Western Balkan states take part in ISAF mission led by NATO in
Afghanistan. Croatia has the largest troops (312) deployed in Afghanistan
followed by Albania (286) and FYROM (163). Bosnia and Herzegovina participates
with 55 troops and Montenegro has 37 troops in Afghanistan.
 |
| Serbian Army head official meeting NATO officer in 2011 |
NATO’s position regarding the future
Alliance enlargement within Western Balkans area can be described with the NATO
Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s words: ‘’NATO’s vision for the
Western Balkans region is clear: Euro-Atlantic integration is the best
guarantee for peace, progress and prosperity…It is up to political leaders
across the Western Balkans to demonstrate the courage and determination to
create better future for their own nations, and for the entire region.’’ These
words definitely shows the NATO’s willingness to strengthen its presence in
region but any discussing of that issue demands opened dialogue regarding several
important issues as it is the willingness of regional governments to fight against
widespread corruption, accepting the fact that Russian Federation has strong
influence in region and that official Moscow doesn’t favor further enlargement
of NATO in Balkans. Finally Western Balkan countries must resolve their
internal disputes which are still present. That means that the solution
compromise will not ask Serbia to lose everything, nor Kosovo Albanians should
be perceived as receiving everything. It can be achieved by constructive
dialogue and with support of Western allies. The same must be done in case of
Macedonia’s name dispute. With the policy of compromise and sustainable
regional development Western Balkans can be fully integrated in the community
of developed democracies.
Branko Lazic,
February, 2012
Article published in the Atlantic Voices Vol. 2
Brussels/Belgium
Нема коментара:
Постави коментар